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With much of California beginning a stay-at-home order Sunday night, it’s becoming clear that the COVID-19 surge is likely to get worse before it gets better.

Average daily coronavirus cases have jumped sixfold since early October; hospitalizations have quadrupled since late October; and average daily deaths have nearly tripled in just the last month.

Hospitalizations and daily deaths are expected to rise. It can take two weeks after someone is diagnosed with the coronavirus to get sick enough to require hospitalization, and seven to 10 more days for them to be admitted into the intensive care unit.

Officials have feared that the Thanksgiving holiday weekend caused more spread, and those infections will likely continue to be seen in the next week. Los Angeles County hit more than 9,000 new cases Saturday, a sign the holiday made things worse.

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