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Many public health experts are highly optimistic as California is set to fully reopen its economy Tuesday, ending most COVID-19 restrictions. But what could still go wrong?

There’s plenty of reason for confidence in the months to come. California has one of the highest rates of vaccination in the nation, with 56% of residents of all ages — and 72% of adults — having had at least one dose of vaccine.

The state has one of the lowest daily coronavirus case rates in America. California’s average number of daily coronavirus cases over a seven-day period are down 98% from their peak, and COVID-19 hospitalizations and average daily deaths are down 96%. Daily cases, deaths and hospitalizations are the lowest they’ve been since the first few weeks of the pandemic more than 14 months ago.

Barring a new, completely unforeseen development, experts do not anticipate California will backslide to any degree similar to the state’s previous three pandemic surges. There’s increasing evidence the vaccines are effective against known variants.

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