Wildfire scientists in partnership with the nonprofit group First Street have created a new model that analyzes property-specific wildfire risks.
Ed Kearn, chief data officer for First Street, said the model uses government open data, including fuel estimates from the U.S. Forest Service, USGS topography, and fire behavior models to create a wildfire risk assessment score.
The group said the simulations can predict wildfire risks for the next 30 years. The “Fire Factor” is rated on a scale of 1 to 10, with the highest ranking leaving the home with more than a 1 in 3 chance of experiencing a wildfire over the next three decades.
Kearns said the number of risky properties in California is currently 100,000, but that number is predicted to grow six-fold by 2050.
Southern California is home to three of the top five counties in the entire nation for most homes considered “at risk.”
Riverside County tops the list with more than 77% of homes at risk, San Bernardino with 57% and Los Angeles County with more than 24% of homes at risk.