There’s no percentage in second-guessing Elon Musk. The Tesla chief executive is too erratic to make his plans apparent.

But it sure looks like he’s pondering an even bigger stake in Twitter — he’s already the largest shareholder — and possibly pursuing a takeover of the San Francisco social-media company.

Musk was awarded a seat on Twitter’s board after it was revealed that he had purchased a 9% interest in the company.

Over the weekend, he flexed his new muscle by tweeting about possible changes for the business. He cracked an apparent joke about Twitter dropping the “w” from its name (a possible allusion to a female body part).

Musk also suggested that Twitter turn its headquarters into a homeless shelter “since no one shows up anyway.”

Then Twitter CEO Parag Agrawal announced Sunday that Musk had changed his mind and would not take a board seat.

“We were excited to collaborate and clear about the risks,” Agrawal said. “We also believed that having Elon as a fiduciary of the company where he, like all board members, has to act in the best interests of the company and all our shareholders was the best path forward.”

What’s that mean? For the moment, we can only guess.

Agrawal said Musk’s appointment to Twitter’s board was “contingent on a background check.” It’s not clear what that background check entailed, but it’s not unreasonable to assume Musk saw it as a red flag.

More importantly, Musk’s seat on the board would have blocked him from amassing more than 15% of the company’s shares.

By forgoing board membership, Musk is now free to buy as many Twitter shares as he pleases — and perhaps even attempt a takeover of the company, hostile or otherwise.

Wall Street analysts are trying to read the tea leaves.

Twitter “must deal with a wild-card investor that already owns 9% of the company and has the resources to buy the remaining 91%,” said Don Bilson of Gordon Haskett Research Advisors.

“As volatile as Musk is, we could see a move like that made shortly. Or we could never see it all. This overhang that TWTR now lives beneath certainly qualifies as a distraction.”

And being a distraction is something that Twitter’s largest shareholder lives for.